The new week opens with the dollar steadying and traders reluctant to commit ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. Positioning is cautious, gold is holding near record territory, and the shilling has found a footing after three months of cooling inflation. Here is how we are framing the week across the major markets.
Dollar and the majors
EUR/USD has coiled into a tightening triangle below 1.0860. A daily close above that level would open the door toward 1.0920, while the Fed minutes remain the obvious catalyst for a breakout in either direction. We are watching whether policymakers lean against the market’s rate-cut pricing.
USD/JPY continues to press higher toward 156.00, and intervention chatter is growing louder with every figure. Cable is testing support and will take its cue from Friday’s UK retail sales print.
Metals and commodities
Gold’s record run is the standout. Central-bank buying and firm rate-cut expectations keep bullion bid; bulls are eyeing $2,360 while pullbacks toward $2,310 are likely to be bought. Oil stays heavy after a surprise crude build, capping the energy complex.
Indices
US30 is stretched into resistance near 39,400 with momentum divergence building — a level worth respecting for anyone chasing the rally. European equities open mixed, with energy lagging as crude slips.
Calendar to watch
The week’s marquee events are Tuesday’s US housing starts, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes (high impact), Thursday’s flash PMIs and jobless claims, and Friday’s UK retail sales. Each is a potential pivot for the dollar.
Market commentary from the EmpireFX Research Desk. For general information and education only — not investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. EmpireFX is licensed and regulated by the Capital Markets Authority (Kenya).